Sunday, April 19, 2009

Regarding the Recent Bull Rally - Irritated SGDividends

We are very irritated by CNBC and the presenter whose name is something Cutlow or Cudloh or Cartlow. He keeps talking up the market and sometimes we really wish to stuff his mouth with some spicy chicken drumstick but it will be a waste of money. So well......Anyway our auntie and uncle unofficial radar has detected some interest in stocks of late among their ranks which to us contrarians sounds like a bear market rally. Anyway, we really don't know and your guess are as good as ours. It's just eye popping to know that Goldman Sachs has issued a Target Price of $3 for SGX. Wow...way to go man.

So since we are unsure, let us look at the recent past to derive some form of tangible data to work with. Of cos past events might not be reflective of future events but hey....thats the best. Let us look at 3 counters which are pretty reflective of the general market sentiment in Singapore. SGX, DBS Bank ( Our late respect for Richard Stanley) and Keppel Corp.


DBS Bank

Keppel Corp

From the above chart, it shows that during this period from March - May of last year , share counters go up in value, before plateuing or going down slightly. So will this pattern repeat? Let us see.

Anyway, though we don't usually give out target prices but we have been looking at a certain indicator and are testing it now. So ( Please take it with a pinch of salt and we are not liable ah...don't be stupid, unless u believe in Ghost busters or fortune tellers), so SGX should not go above approx $6.50 ( plus minus 10 cent) in May 2009, and it will go down to below $5 in June 2009. Let's see if it works.

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Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team



    cnbc is horrible their presenters hardly give guest chance to talk and elaborate on their views. They constantly "ensure" their shows are dramatic and usually promote a positive outlook.

  2. I am also irritated too! As it rally much faster b4 i got to chance to analyze the equities which i wanted to buy! sigh................well this is the equities market.............

  3. Personally,I too, think that SGX is over valued. Even books such as Adam Khoo's Profit From The Panic published stuffs on SGX.
    (I did not buy that book, just browsing through at Popular book store.)
    So it must be very popular and too hot due to the nature of business...

    Sometimes,more often than not,it definitely irritates everyone who has not invested enough,including myself...until last night when Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted to the change of wind negatively...
    Then again, it is really difficult to tell where the stocks are heading exactly.A bear rally causing a reboounds of 20% above seems tempting for most investors that the worst may be over....
    Anyway, sg dividends, i like to check with you the following:
    Whether it is the economy leading the stock market or other way round?

    I find that this is a chicken and egg both are inter-related...
    Btw, thanks for answering my doubts on the topic earlier.

    Lol when you mentioned that even aunties and uncles are interested in stocks due to this bear market rally.

    Thanks alot.


  4. hi Simpson,

    Usually ..its the stock market which leads the economy..... The economy lags....

    Some people say it lags by around 6 months.

    SGDividend =)


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