Firstly, i pray that the Japanese disaster will end immediately and that the nuclear situation be kept well under control and a heavy rain cloud will just suddenly appear over the reactors and pour out godzillion tons of water at the fuel rods. My heartfelt condolences!
There has been rife talk about the next time bomb which is the Japan Sovereign debt. Let's begin the bad news.Japan's public debt is reaching 225% of GDP. Japan needs to spend more to rebuilt which will result in even more debt. Japan's aging population will result in less tax revenues which will increase the debt. S&P has recently cut Japan's sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2002.Moody says it might follow suit. If these bad news is not enough to send a chill up your spine, why not some pictures to add to the gloom....
BULL SHIT
And I Shall repeat Bull Shit.
However, the situation is different for a government. A government is able to borrow infinitely just by printing more cash. So what if the japanese citizens one day start to lend less to the Japanese government by buying less JGB bonds. SO WHAT! The government can simply order The Bank of Japan to buy the bonds up by printing money and that has been unravelling recently when the BOJ has been printing trillions of YEN. ( Similar to the US FED). This gloom doom crap about a Japan Sovereign debt is really hyped up in my opinion.Bring it on..make it 100000000000000000% of GDP instead of the 200% of GDP.Somemore zeros.....yeah, make it 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000% of GDP. It doesn't matter.
OK, having said the above. One consequence is this. Hyperinflation will result if governments just wantonly print money. SO for the individual investor, i feel the topmost concern now is to look for good investments that will beat the headline inflation. Therefore FIRE AWAY....BUY BUY BUY!Being fearful now because of the Japanese Sovereign Timebomb is plain stupid.It might be good for Japan too since it has been plagued by deflation for too long. Now what to buy....hmmmmm
*The above is my own opinions. I have been known to be wrong many times. But it has not been known if i have been correct more times or wrong more times......i wont tell.



Haha.. I enjoyed this post. :)
ReplyDeleteAs to how much of Japanese government debt is held domestically, it is 95 to 97%. I don't have the latest exact figure especially after the Chinese government chose to buy JGBs instead of US Treasuries late last year.
I wrote a piece on Japan's debt issue as well many moons ago:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/japans-debt-issue-and-saizen-reit.html
Have a good weekend. :)
Hi AK71,
ReplyDeleteNice of you to drop by :)
Read your post on Japanese debt and the debt per capita thing is insightful.
Been following your posts on Saizen Reit too...
SPH is a good call :)
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