Saturday, November 7, 2015

Virgin purchase of H-share Index ETF-2828:HK

Ever since the china stock market bubble and its subsequent crash correction i have been toying with the idea of thinking how i can unleash my greed. In a moment of absolute folly, i changed a sum of money into HKD without understanding the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, worse still, i didn't check the exchange rates given by my broker. Now i'm stuck with HKD with the broker with no interest given and just thinking about changing it back into SGD with their  lousy exchange rates puts me off. Better to see the glass half full now and thinking about what i learnt with this 'play' money.
  • Hong Kong stock exchange really sucks man. Their board lots are different for its different shares. Now i know 2828:HK has a board lot of 200 shares, 00005:HK (HSBC) a board lot of 400 shares e.t.c.See convoluted exchange
  • Hong Kong stock exchange don't have live prices, giving 15 minutes delayed prices. See super convoluted exchange. I have to go to aastocks to get live prices instead.
Anyway, i really hate adding another variable ( currency) into my speculations investing. I need things really simple as my IQ isn't high and i can't think fast enough and most importantly i'm immensely risk averse. But a trip to a particular toilet cubicle changed my life as i stared at this phrase scribbled in ink 'a life lived without risks pretty much wasn't worth living'  for 15 minutes. Damn this phraseee!!!
Looking at the AH Premium index, the mainland A-shares (only for domestic China citizens to purchase who are made up of mainly retail investors) is trading at a hefty 30ish% premium to the H-shares (shares that the international community like you and me can buy) for the same group of companies. Historically the premium for A-shares is roughly a 5ish%-10ish premium to the H-shares and there are times where H-shares trade at a discount to A-shares, below the 100 level. 

So what are the possibilities?
  1. H-shares rise  (A-share fall or stays the same)
  2. H-shares fall by a small amount( A-share must capitulate, crash and burn to narrow the premium)
Well the above is just pure speculation based on price and the theory of mean reversion of prices. Anyway, since i have HKD AND H-shares index having a P/E ratio of only 7.77 and a dividend yield of 3% ( better than an interest of 0% on my dead HKD with my broker) and no dividend withholding tax on this 2828:HK. Heck lah..just buy.
Now, what to do with the remaining dead HKD?

2 comments:

  1. Suggestions:

    1. Go to HK for holiday and spend the remaining "dead" HKD, assuming you can withdraw from your HK broker.

    2. Throw more SGD into it and get more HKD to buy more H shares!

    3. Just wait. Eventually the forex rates and the H share prices will make it worthwhile for you (or your grandkids?) to cash out?

    ReplyDelete
  2. HK broker does not allow for withdrawal.
    Think option 3 is the only option

    ReplyDelete