The disconnect between asset prices and fundamentals

It is weird how asset prices can be so disconnected from the current state of the world economy. If one is to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is a good reflection of 2 factors: supply of ships and state of economy ( hence the demand of ships), it is amazing to see how shipping counters like NOL, Cosco, YangZiJiang e.t.c has been rallying like crazy while the BDI has been plummenting like crazy at about the same time. To borrow jargon from the technical analyst's vocabulary there is currently a complete divergence between the BDI and the shipping counters. The current BDI is at 662 and note that this is even lower than it's 5 year low of 663.

Five year Baltic Dry Index Chart

NOL 1 year chart

I still do not believe that this is a real rally but i will be happy if i am proven wrong as i still have 60% of my portfolio in high dividend yielding equities. If the equities market is to rally somemore and become extremely overbought, i would sell some of my equities off. It could rally somemore if china relaxes some lending rules,US print somemore money, EU print somemore money or investors ploughing money into equities as property investing is now too regulated. e.t.c. I really hope that its due to the shifting of money from property to equities as it would fit very very nicely into my strategy.

I believe that the economy will keep on getting worse as the 2 biggest consumers of the world is mired in recession. How can China, Hong Kong or Singapore not be affected? Taking the words of Donald Tsang, Hong Kong's Chief Executive just a few days ago: " I have never been as scared as i am about the world". This speaks volumes. There has also been more retrenchments in the electronic or banking sectors if you were to know industry insiders. Even Mr Tony Tan mentioned that Singapore economy may be threatened in August of 2011 ( Straits times)

Now about property. I am fortunate to know a property developer who made a remark that Singapore property would definitely cool due to the property situation in China as there will be now fewer Chinese buyers snapping up our properties.  From my own experience, I am also of the opinion that Singapore asset prices are laggards. Just look at how the singapore equity market tracks the China equity market and to a lesser extent now, the US market. Whenever there is a big rally in the US S&P the previous night, the STI would rally the next morning.

China property price slide gathers speed - The Telegraph

Are China Properties in free fall - Forbes

China property sector goes from bad to worse - FT alphaville

Hong Kong homes face25% Drop as loans fall in year of dragon.- bloomberg

Singapore home prices fall in December - Reuters

European interest in Singapore Property Markets cooling - Asia Property report.

And the list goes on.......

So what will i do now. Just wait loh. There is a season for sowing and a season for reaping. Now is neither.

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Thoughts On Current Environment

It is quite expected of the government to come up with additional property cooling measures as i have said before that property is a public good and any additional meaningful upside in price will be capped. I must say that this recent measure of taxing foreigners the additional 10% stamp duty is a very good and well thought of move by the government. I applaud them and must say they are really responding well to the recent results of the general election. I feel that this move tackles both the issues of foreign competition and also the laments of the young generation of aspiring homeowners. Good Job. So how well will property fare in the coming years?

In my opinion, property will go down in prices and volume but i won't know by how much. Singaporeans have strong holding power from what i observe ( I used to say that property prices may also stagnate but no longer). They have their CPFs, so this is a plus point for property. On the other hand, recent data has shown that foreigners and PRs form a significant proportion of property transactions and since assets are ALWAYS priced at the margins, prices could swing to the south given an expected low transactional volume. All that is needed to really push property to nose dive will be accelerated retrenchments. The holding power of Singaporeans will make sure that property will not go too far south though.The devaluing of fiat currency will also help prop up property. 2013-2015 will be a good time to show-hand in property for investment given the supply and expected interest rate hikes.

Now about the equity markets. In my opinion, money has to flow somewhere. It either flows into stocks or flows into property or flows into Gold or flows into bonds or flows into currencies or flows into savings account. Money now has flowed into safe currencies like USD or Yen and savings account and to some extend flowed out of equity markets and the sing dollar. The reason why equity markets have not corrected massively is just because there is just too much money chasing limited assets. I still have not dipped my toes into the equity market again yet as i feel there is still some downside to go as i feel market confidence is still not yet totally broken.( 60% of my portfolio is currently in equities).  Having said that, some of my stocks in my watchlist has hit or broken their 52weeks low. I have also observed that many of my shares are still being shorted. I just cant wait to squeeze the short sellers, just not yet and im a small fry. haha. Will the harsh property cooling measures result in money flows to the equity market? It would be interesting. Now, i will just sit back and earn my fees from the short sellers and dividends.
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Discipline to keep one's emotions at bay

Currently, my percentage of cash comprises 35% of my portfolio with 65% fully invested in equities. At present, my portfolio in terms of paper profits is still yielding a positive return even after the market sell down. ( I have not included the dividends i have received over time.) Having said that, i did consider liquidating some of my equities when the 50 EMA crossed the 200EMA from above but alas, i am not disciplined. I find difficulty in selling some of my equities after a sell down. It is emotional for me and i think i need to improve on this.

Having said that, another factor why im not selling is because my companies are still fundamentally strong and yielding at least 6% -7%dividends based on my buy price. When i include the lending fees which i receive when i let people short my shares through SGX, my returns are slightly more. I am not emotional when my shares drop 50% in value because of market risk . I dont mind as i will buy more but i get emotional when the companies i buy go fundamentally weaker resulting in share price decrease. I hate that.Really hate that.Furthermore, i dont know if QE3 will be annouced. If announced, equities could have a rally in the short to medium term.

This 35% cash that i have will be there to take advantage of any property correction or massive share price correction. Jackson hole speech is upon us. I hope that Ben Bernake doesnt do a QE3. I hate it when he said that interest rates will remain low till 2013 I hate it when governments impose short selling bans. I love it when Gold price goes up because i think its a bubble. I hate it when Moody's and Fitch dont downgrade US debt. Its not the time to get emotional...

AAAAAArrrghh, I am frustrated and i need inner peace. God please help.

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About the Japan Crisis and What to do?

Firstly, i pray that the Japanese disaster will end immediately and that the nuclear situation be kept well under control and a heavy rain cloud will just suddenly appear over the reactors and pour out godzillion tons of water at the fuel rods. My heartfelt condolences!

There has been rife talk about the next time bomb which is the Japan Sovereign debt. Let's begin the bad news.Japan's public debt is reaching 225% of GDP. Japan needs to spend more to rebuilt which will result in even more debt. Japan's aging population will result in less tax revenues which will increase the debt. S&P has recently cut Japan's sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2002.Moody says it might follow suit. If these bad news is not enough to send a chill up your spine, why not some pictures to add to the gloom....

From the picture, it can be seen that government revenue is on a downtrend while government expenditure is on the uptrend, together with the rising trend of the government debt. Oh Gosh! Well if that is still not enough, why not throw in some videos featuring Chief Economists from Whos who in the banking world to rub salt in the wound. Here it is, you unbelieving soul!

Is that enough to create some sort of fear? Are you breaking out in cold sweat now? Have you pee-ed in you pants yet! Not me. Maybe cos im a spinelss creep, so definitely no chills up my spine yet.
BULL SHIT
And I Shall repeat Bull Shit.

but but but....who is going to buy JGB bonds anymore to lend to the japanese government if the japanese population gets too old and their savings are depleted when they are not able to earn. (Some background:Most of the government debt is financed by her own citizens.I think its 80%, not sure. The japanese government is basically selling more JGB bonds to finance the interest on the debt, So its a vicious cycle, where the government borrows more to pay off previous debt and the debt can only get larger at a faster rate.).

Honestly, this response makes sense if  we are talking about an individual person borrowing from cashlines,cashplus,citibank readicredit, HSBC personal loans to pay off existing loans which have high interest rates. The party will end soon eventually when all resources are depleted. A person cannot borrow forever.This also applies to companies.

However, the situation is different for a government. A government is able to borrow infinitely just by printing more cash. So what if the japanese citizens one day start to lend less to the Japanese government by buying less JGB bonds. SO WHAT! The government can simply order The Bank of Japan to buy the bonds up by printing money and that has been unravelling recently when the BOJ has been printing trillions of YEN. ( Similar to the US FED). This gloom doom crap about a Japan Sovereign debt is really hyped up in my opinion.Bring it on..make it 100000000000000000% of GDP instead of the 200% of GDP.Somemore zeros.....yeah, make it 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000% of GDP. It doesn't matter.

OK, having said the above. One consequence is this. Hyperinflation will result if governments just wantonly print money. SO for the individual investor, i feel the topmost concern now is to look for good investments that will beat the headline inflation. Therefore FIRE AWAY....BUY BUY BUY!Being fearful now because of the Japanese Sovereign Timebomb is plain stupid.It might be good for Japan too since it has been plagued by deflation for too long. Now what to buy....hmmmmm

*The above is my own opinions. I have been known to be wrong many times. But it has not been known if i have been correct more times or wrong more times......i wont tell.

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Why property is no longer an excellent Investment-Part 2 ( Continued)

This post is a continuation of part 1. Please read the link first. Based on the parameters and the given scenario ( Price stagnates, no capital appreciation) , below is the layout of the spreadsheet.

Sold within 1 year of purchase

By the end of the 1st month, if the property is sold, the percentage loss is 42.85%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage loss is 514% per annum.
By the end of the 12th month, if the property is sold, the percentage loss is 37.80%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage loss is 254.34% per annum.
The above is due to the horrific 16% stamp duty.

Sold after 1 year of purchase but within 2 years

By the end of the 24th month, if the property is sold, the percentage loss is 22.73%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage loss is 11.36% per annum. The above is due to the horrific 12% stamp duty.

Sold after 2 year of purchase but within 3 years

By the end of the 36th month, if the property is sold, the percentage loss is 7.58%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage loss is 2.53% per annum. The above is due to the horrific 8% stamp duty.

Sold after 3 years of purchase but within 4 years

By the end of the 48th month, if the property is sold, the percentage gain is 7.64%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage gain is 1.91% per annum. The above is due to the horrific 4% stamp duty.

Sold after 4 years of purchase but within 5 years

By the end of the 60th month, if the property is sold, the percentage gain is 22.94%. When this loss is annualised, the percentage gain is 4.59% per annum. There is no longer any seller stamp duty.

From the 6th years onwards, i will hide some columns and leave only the End of month, Percentage gain and Annualised percentage gain columns.

As can be seen, if one has holding power to wait, there is still some meat left but seriously the reward is greater than the horrific risk of capital depreciation, excess supply resulting in lower rents, increase in mortgage rates Do remember that this model is assuming the house is constantly being rented out and that commission for renting out the house has not been included. Repairs, renovations have also not been included.
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