Interest in Bitcoin and crypto using Google Trends

 Bitcoin and cypto is really soaring. Interestingly, not many bloggers are writing much about them like the past. The rise in price is not without reasons, being the US SEC has approved spot bitcoins etfs, bitcoin halvening in april and the impending decision to approve options on spot bitcoin etfs. The "fundamentals" for bitcoin is indeed stronger now than in the past. 

Retail interest in Bitcoin

Looking at google trends, the spike in people searching for bitcoin and crypto in the past happens roughly 3-5 months before market price tops. During the period when Blackrock was applying for the spot bitcoin approval, interest was very low. It only started increasing once the etf was appoved. 

But with Bitcoin prices having surpassed its ATH of about USD67000, interest in Bitcoin, using google trends as a reference is surprisingly still very low. 

This leads me to believe that the retail buying has not yet started as the drive in prices is due to instituitional buying of Bitcoins. Barriers to entry for retail to buy Bitcoin is now lowered as there is no need to keep a cold or hard wallet and be afraid of an exchange to fail and lose one's Bitcoin. A normal broker like Interactive Brokers, Moomoo or Tiger will do, without the need to grapple with crypto terms.

A scenario:

Bitcoin price rise leads to increased mining and greater energy use, driving up the cost of energy, causing inflation to rise and the dollar to decline, driving demand for Bitcoin and increased mining, driving demand for energy and the cycle continues.

Bitcoin… https://t.co/a5LzX69R7q

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 9, 2024

Spot Ethereum ETF

The US SEC has mentioned that Bitcoin is a commodity while the other cryptos are securities and using the HOWEY test to defend their decision in US courts. Other than Bitcoin,  other cryptos undergo an ICO( initial coin offering) which is akin to an IPO, hence the added burden of regulation.

I am not sure if spot Ethereum will be approved at all but apparently many people believe that if Bitcoin  is approved, the other cryptos will also be approved without realising that the US SEC has already classified them into different classes.