Friday, February 5, 2016

How to stop oneself from being greedy during bear markets

For some, allocating their warchest in tranches based on price level of an index helps them. For me, it helps slightly but not much. I am a sucker for sustainable dividends. So i need a reason to stop wasting money using up all my warchest too fast. I have been buying lately and i do feel very guilty.
The drop so far can be considered the 4th worst bear market since 1987 for the STI. 
The official definition of a bear market refers to a downturn of 20% or more.
The STI dropped 20% from its most recent peak and entered bear market territory in September 1997, May 2001 and February 2008. It reached the bottom roughly in the months of August 1998, March 2003 and February 2009 respectively.
Number of months to reach the bottom from the start of the bear market
Sept 1997 - Aug 1998 = 11 months
May 2001 - Mar 2003 = 22 months
Feb 2008 - Feb 2009 = 12 months
Average months to reach = 15 months
Sep 2015 - Don't know when = ??

So far, about 4 months have passed since STI reached bear market territory. I think i really have to make sure my warchest can last at least another 11 months and to hope for the market to fall very very steep as the steeper it drops, the faster the recovery process can take. The most 'sian' one will be if it turns out to be like May 2001- Mar 2003 where one will suffer many DEAD BIG CAT BOUNCES. 

2 comments:

  1. It's a very helpful article,..
    Thanks for sharing this informative blog,.
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  2. Warm greetings. I was wondering if SingSaver.com.sg can contribute weekly editorials about personal finance? Thank you so very much, Kat.

    KATRINA KARIM
    VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS
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