How to See if a Bank might fail - Example: DBS Singapore

With all the gloom and doom about bank failures and with Citigroup going to $3+ dollars, what the heck is happening to the world! Let's look at a recently popularised ( its been around for sometime actually)ratio called the Texas ratio to see if a bank has a chance of failure. Before you read further, please take note that banks are one of the hardest entities to value or analyse. Admittedly, SGDividends are not experts at it. We can only try, using some logic and common sense.

The Texas ratio was developed as an early warning system to identify potential problem banks. It was originally applied to banks in Texas in the 1980s and proved useful for New England banks in the early 1990s. Below is a good video by CBS about this ratio. Apparently, its quite reliable.

Definition: The Texas ratio takes the amount of a bank's non-performing assets and loans and divides this number by the firm's tangible capital equity plus its loan loss reserve. A ratio of more than 100% (or 1:1) is considered a warning sign.

So what is a non-performing loan (NPL or as DBS calls it NPA)? A loan becomes non-performing after being in default for three months, but this can depend on the contract terms.

So let's look at our dear DBS ( yes the one embroiled in the High Notes case, the one who fired 900 employees without consulting the unions, the ones who "lost" clients safe deposit boxes).

From the most recent financial statements released in Nov 2008, DBS reported S$2,054 million non-performing loans. See below.

The non-performing loan amounts have to be divided by TANGIBLE capital equity PLUS loan loss reserve. The tangible capital equity is calculated as total equity ( S$24,333 million) minus Goodwill on consolidation ( S$5,847 million) which is equals S$18,486 million. See below.

Therefore, the Texas Ratio ( sounds like game Texas Hold'em!) = S$2054 / S$18,486 = 0.111=11%. ( we did not mention about the loss reserve as we can't find it and we suspect its been accounted for in the S$18,486 figure. )

Since the Texas Ratio of 11% is way lesser than 100%. DBS is considered safe. Can you sleep well tonight?

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

How to Value Equities - The Discounted Cash Flow (Dividends) way! - Example:SingPost

A reader asked us to write about valuing equities using the Discounted Cash Flow method sometime back. It has been long overdued...sorry dude or duddette...we have been busy analysing some stuff of late. Before you read on, we would like to mention that this method entails a lot, a lot and we mean a lot of assumptions and it is highly theorectical. Garbage in- garbage out. Why do you think Research Reports target prices are nearly always way off target? Anyway, its the thought process that counts and not the final target price. Who knows, when thinking through the process..you may actually gain insights on the stock you are researching. So its not useless..this model.

There are many forms of DCF analysis and we will be looking at discounting dividends. This is most appropriate for valuing stable companies (for example in a mature industry) and those that have a consistent payout of dividends . (Please note that there are other types such as discounting Operating Free Cash flow or discounting Free Cash flow ).We will be using SingPost as an example. See below for the yearly dividends they give out. We started from year 2006.

Based on the table above, it is logical to assume that they will be giving out at least S$0.0625 in dividends every year from 2009 and beyond. So here comes the DCF formula. Its looks ugly but its actually quite easy. SGDividends will walk you through.

Figure 1

The foundation of this formula is that the value of a asset ( stock in this case) is the present value of its expected future cash flows ( dividends in this case). In the above formula, it is taking all the dividends up to infinity years ahead and bringing it back to the present value, now. People then compare this present value now with the current stock price to see if its cheap or not. The dividends for a company could grow in time, therefore, the variable g takes into account the dividends growth.
As SGDividends is all about making complicated things even easier than easy. We are going to derive a formula which will be easier than easy to use. The derivation is below in figure 2, but you can skip this part amd jump to the final formula in Figure 3.

Figure 2

You can read up on the sum of infinity through thislink. From the above maths in figure 2, we derive the following formula in figure 3 from the equation in figure 1. Isn't it much easier to use now?

Figure 3

So let's put all this mumbo-jumbo in practice, shall we?

For Singpost:

Dividends for current period ( or most recent period) , Do= S$0.0625.

As it is in a mature industry, assuming dividends is growing slowly at a rate, g = 2%.

Let's assume your required rate of return, K = 6% ( We use 6% just to follow the rate from DBS preferential shares. It can be anything you wish because its YOUR required rate of return.Most people would then choose as high a rate of return as possible as more is better right?Then its wrong. You should consider your required rate of return as the rate of return of the next best investment which you think you can get. So if you thought DBS preference shares at 6% is one of the best around or it makes you happy, then use it as a benchmark to input the K.)

Value of stock = [0.0625(1+0.06)] / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.65625

Price currently as of 21 Nov 2008 as listed on SGX = $0.76.

Don't go rushing to buy this stock yet as we have said before there are many assumptions. Firstly, there is no guarantee that Singpost will continue giving out dividends or dividends will grow. There is no guarantee that Singpost will last forever, it might go bankrupt like Ferrochina ( haha...do you think so?). If Singpost decides to be crazy and start giving out more dividends than is manageable to its survival as a company, then of cos using the model doesn't work as it will not last and the current value you calculate will be too big and wrong. It is theoretical and also you will realise that this is not appropriate for all companies, since some companies don't give out dividends.

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team