Why property is no longer an excellent investment (Part 1-to be continued)

Been debating with a friend on whether property is a good investment for ages!The problem with this debate is both of us just throw out qualitative statements about the good and bad of it. I gave up. Took out a spreadsheet and did a property calculator. Let this spreadsheet be the end of such meaningless debate. I have inputted the new rules implemented this January 2011. The following parameters are what have been placed into the model. I would like to add that this model serves as the best case scenario for residential private property investment. Therefore, one would very likely get less than the returns stated.

Parameters based on government rules
- 40% downpayment is needed.
This is because we are looking at property as an investment and very likely this investor has an outstanding home loan already.
- Seller stamp duty (SSD) of 16%, 12%, 8%,4% in the 1st,2nd,3rd and 4th year respectively if property is bought and sold within these years. No SSD if sold after 4th year.
- Buyer stamp duty(BSD) of 1% on first $180000, 2% on next $180000 and 3% on remaining property price.
-Property agent commission of 2% paid by seller
-Property tax of 10% of annual property value

Assumptions ( I would really appreciate it if you would tell me if i had made any unrealistic assumptions...i am open to constructive criticism. Remember this is a model)
- Net rental yield of 3.5%. This is calculated by taking the monthly rent minus maintenance minus monthly property tax divided by property price Monthly property tax is derived from the annual property tax divided by 12 months. ( i feel i might be quite optimistic about the yield already given the way i calculate it)
- Mortgage is fixed at 2% per annum. (Very good already)
- Loan tenure is 30 years
- Property is rented out 100%.(best case scenario)
- Rent amount is constant. ( best case scenario)
- Buyer legal fees is $2500 ( Is this fair?)
-Seller legal fees is $2000 ( Is this fair?)

What i have not included (because it varies greatly from individual to individual)
- i have not included the property agent's commission for renting out the property
- i have not included the renovation or repairs or furniture cost
- i have not included home insurance

The Horror Story
Mr Dick Albaross, who has a hearing problem, has $380,000 to invest. He eats fish every meal and likes to go to the wet market to buy silver pomfret from Auntie Chuck Hubert. In the wet market, he hears Auntie Chuck Hubert chant " buy pomfret", "buy pomfret". Being hard of hearing, he thought she meant " buy property" , buy "property". Since Auntie Chuck Hubert sounded so earnest, she could be right!!! Hmm, should i buy a property.....Dick pondered.

Scenario 1 (Property price stays stagnant)

( This post will be continued to show the annualised percentage gain for the different years when the property is sold......Gotta go gambling now....).

The happy problem of excess cash

With not much value left to be found in the stock markets and possible risks including stagflation(inflation coupled with anaemic economic growth in developed countries), increase in oil prices or food prices hurting corporate profitability (thereby reducing general stock market upside due to an already large profit base reported), very possible continued increase in interest rates to stem inflation, the wild card in middle eastern unrest and the general optimistic mood of " uncle and aunties" ...its wise to store up some cash for a possible correction. The stock market could possibly go higher due to ample liquidity, yet it also serves to heighten the danger of a reverse of liquidity back to developed nations.....risks is greater than reward.

Given the above backdrop, i am at my wits end to place this excess cash i have. I did explore Traded Endowment Policies (TEPs) but at 4%-8% per annum returns with a possible 10% loss of capital, having to fork out cash monthly to serve these policies and having to face the volatility of exchange rates as these policies are priced in pounds, i feel i can definitely do better than that in other things. Having said that, i think it is a good place to park your money if you are one who don't know what to do with your money and need some enforced money discipline. Way better than investment-linked insurance policies or certain whole-life plans or endowment policies. Residential property investment is a no go definitely. The risks are higher than the rewards. Any meaningful upside will be capped by the government(election year, remember!) as residential property is still a public good. The above average supply of HDB flats being doled out and TOP-ing in 2013-2015 and also of private residentials, means rental rates will fall. Coupled with higher interest rates, there will be lesser meat. Its more likely to go slightly downhill or stagnate. It is ONLY suitable for those with strong holding power to realize the meat..PERIOD. Other forms of property like commercial and industrial is out of my sphere of knowledge but i would hazard a guess that the recent "popular" mentioning of commercial and industrial as a good investment means that it isn't anymore or at best, not much meat left. Anyway, its best left to experts.

It could be a good time to clear certain debts.Will update. Meantime, Happy Chinese New Year!