Oil prices- a negative for property

Everyone knows that property has been propped up by low interest rates and excess cash liquidity in the world. If you haven't noticed yet, the finance sector in Singapore has been silently retrenching people since last November.These banks are mainly those europe ones due to the euro-zone crisis. I am not too sure if these banks are as flush with liquidity given the bad loans that need to be forgiven, Greece for now. maybe Spain next?( 500 singtel employees retrenched and given a new role in Huawei..hmm for how long?Nice spin.SIA offers pilots unpaid leave for up to 2 years...Whats happening?Good deal for SIA)

Some people may say, the Central banks can just pump somemore money into the system to shore up the liquidity of these banks. True....but with oil prices slowly creeping up and inflation becoming more pervasive and with the Iran tensions ongoing...are they able to keep on pumping money into the system? Oil prices determines how much room there is for liquidity which in turn determines how much support there is for property. No data, just reasoning. Too high oil prices can lead to social unrest i feel.

Having said that, my emotional decision for staying in the market with 50% invested has been rewarding with lending fees and dividends dripping in, in addition to some additional capital appreciation.

I am also pleasantly surprised that the district which i am eyeing for my property purchase has shown a massive amount of new listings BUT with ridiculous asking prices which will make Warren Buffet get a heart attack. I am comfortable with my house now...nay maybe i should just stay put for another 10 more years and utilize my cash somewhere else.

Cheers to the stock market. Tata

The disconnect between asset prices and fundamentals

It is weird how asset prices can be so disconnected from the current state of the world economy. If one is to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is a good reflection of 2 factors: supply of ships and state of economy ( hence the demand of ships), it is amazing to see how shipping counters like NOL, Cosco, YangZiJiang e.t.c has been rallying like crazy while the BDI has been plummenting like crazy at about the same time. To borrow jargon from the technical analyst's vocabulary there is currently a complete divergence between the BDI and the shipping counters. The current BDI is at 662 and note that this is even lower than it's 5 year low of 663.

Five year Baltic Dry Index Chart

NOL 1 year chart

I still do not believe that this is a real rally but i will be happy if i am proven wrong as i still have 60% of my portfolio in high dividend yielding equities. If the equities market is to rally somemore and become extremely overbought, i would sell some of my equities off. It could rally somemore if china relaxes some lending rules,US print somemore money, EU print somemore money or investors ploughing money into equities as property investing is now too regulated. e.t.c. I really hope that its due to the shifting of money from property to equities as it would fit very very nicely into my strategy.

I believe that the economy will keep on getting worse as the 2 biggest consumers of the world is mired in recession. How can China, Hong Kong or Singapore not be affected? Taking the words of Donald Tsang, Hong Kong's Chief Executive just a few days ago: " I have never been as scared as i am about the world". This speaks volumes. There has also been more retrenchments in the electronic or banking sectors if you were to know industry insiders. Even Mr Tony Tan mentioned that Singapore economy may be threatened in August of 2011 ( Straits times)

Now about property. I am fortunate to know a property developer who made a remark that Singapore property would definitely cool due to the property situation in China as there will be now fewer Chinese buyers snapping up our properties.  From my own experience, I am also of the opinion that Singapore asset prices are laggards. Just look at how the singapore equity market tracks the China equity market and to a lesser extent now, the US market. Whenever there is a big rally in the US S&P the previous night, the STI would rally the next morning.

China property price slide gathers speed - The Telegraph

Are China Properties in free fall - Forbes

China property sector goes from bad to worse - FT alphaville

Hong Kong homes face25% Drop as loans fall in year of dragon.- bloomberg

Singapore home prices fall in December - Reuters

European interest in Singapore Property Markets cooling - Asia Property report.

And the list goes on.......

So what will i do now. Just wait loh. There is a season for sowing and a season for reaping. Now is neither.