TAKEN FROM THEIR SLIDES RELEASED ON NOV 08 ( ABOVE)
Firstly, at first glance, it looks impressive, doesn't it?Solid Operations, No Refinancing Needs, blah, blah,blah..all the marketing talk which actually makes us more determined to research the company actually. Circled in RED, it states that currently their portfolio of property has an occupancy of 94.4%, but let's look at their porfolio expiry profile below.
TAKEN FROM THEIR SLIDES RELEASED ON NOV 08(ABOVE)
It states that in the fourth quarter of 2008, 7.7 % of their occupied space is expiring. Let us assume that the 7.7% do not renew. That will leave us with (100%-7.7%) times stated current occupancy level of 94.4%, which gives us an occupancy level of 87.1% at end of this year. Let's look at 2009. As stated above, 33.4% of their occupied space is expiring in 2009. Assuming that the 33.4% do not renew, this will give us an occupancy level of (100%-33.4%) times 87.1%, which turns out to be 58%! Imagine going to a shopping centre, say Suntec City where around 4-5 shops out of 10 shops are closed!
This is the worst case scenario of course. There might be new tenants coming in to take up the slack, some or even all of the tenants might actually renew, and we might even be wrong in our interpretation of "% of occupied space expiring" in their slides. But well, no definition from Fortune breeds speculation.....(Just added: We are not experts in shopping malls leasing, maybe its the industry practice, not perculiar to Fortune. But from a layman's perspective, given these times, its some food for thought!)
Anyway, we are pretty disappointed with the investor relations department of this company as they did not reply on our query on how they are going to mitigate this risky outflow of tenants. Why the following sentence if you are not going to reply ?
"For general enquiries, please email us at enquiries@fortunereit.com and we will respond promptly."
Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team
Your analysis is wrong. No need to use a factor to multiply; just substract will suffice.
ReplyDeleteNo one expects the tenancies to go vacant. The question is the rental rates.
Ok that means we might have interpreted "% of occupied space expiring" incorrectly. Therefore, in year 2009, the worst case scenario will be 100% - 33.4% = 66.6% vacant, are we right?
ReplyDeleteActually Fortune should still be able to ride it out ....since its current assets is so huge relatively.
Yes, just substract. But you need to account for the current vacancy rate too to derive at the vacancy next year. I haven't look at the charts again but you can check if the different lease expiring percentages and current vacancy rate adds up to 100%.
ReplyDelete