Monday, November 15, 2021

I have been putting money in the markets. Here is why.

Still building one's war chest waiting to shoot with an elephant gun when a major crash happens?

Covid seemed like an Armageddon-like event that could have rivaled or surpassed the Great Financial Crisis of 2009.

I remembered viewing a property in February 2020 and viewing the same property in October 2020. I was quite surprised that the price rose. 

Probably its the debt moratorium, wage support, Fed money printing or whatever but it is important to know what is really happening now.

The equity markets have been roaring and there are still some who are predicting that the market will crash when the rates start to rise.

Maybe they are right, maybe not....i have been in the markets for too long to know that no one knows for certain. No one expected how pervasive Covid would affect our lives  in 2019.

Personal Savings as a percentage of disposable personal income

The main media coverage of Covid started in around February/March 2020 and from then on, the savings rate of Americans has increased to around twice or more than their prior savings rate of around 7% in January 2020. 

Covid has helped Americans save. 

The savings rate reached their pre-covid state from around September 2021 onwards which mean they are starting to spend more like last time.

Household Debt Service Ratio

The Household Debt Service Ratio is the ratio of total required household debt payments to total disposable income.
From a debt serving ratio (%) perspective, their debt has reduced drastically post-Covid. 

Americans have historically high debt servicing ratios but it has been improving.

Before 2009 GFC, the ratio was between 11% to 13% . 
After 2009 GFC to 2019, the ratio was around 10%.
In 2021, the ratio is now below 9%.

US Corporate Profits

US corporate profits have been on a uptrend, higher than it was pre-covid.

More savings, less debt and better corporate profits in the world's largest economy.

What's the probability that a US stock market ( S&P 500) crash is imminent after such a seemingly stretched run-up of prices?

To be clear, a crash is not a correction which is 10% from ATH.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.