Monday, November 22, 2021

A Quick Comment on Alibaba

Alibaba recently released their results which apparently disappointed the market and caused an immediate plunge of 10%.

I am sure by now that everyone knows the market is irrational and no one can forecast what the price can be in 1 months , 3 months or even 1 year's time.

Even the guru's or big boys' actions are conflicting. 

Temasek trimmed their position but Charlie Munger, co -partner of Warren Buffet in Berkshire Hathaway actually loaded more quite recently.

So who's right , who's wrong? 

If one were to read all the opinions in forums, one would be seriously confused.

Data from

In 2017, Alibaba had a share price of US$140. 

Now, Alibaba has a share price of around US$140 again.

But Alibaba is a much more valuable company now than it was in 2017, at least 3 times. Theoretically, its share price should be at least 3 times of US$140 in 2017 making it US$420 today if we were to go along this line of logic. Of course, one can look at it in another way and say that since the current price is US$140, the price in 2017 should have been US$47 and US$140 was too overvalued in 2017. This is perfectly reasonable too.

I think what is happening now is just investor sentiment based on the regulatory clampdowns and also the market focus on the slower growth which based on maths, the larger a company is, the base is larger hence the growth has to slow also.

I am of the opinion that once the regulatory situation dies down, Alibaba share price should do better.

In 2017, there was Xi Jinping. In 2021 Xi Jinping is still the president, just that now, people know what he can and will do and it is more clear.

An optimist can say with so much regulations compressed into these past 6 months, the only way is lesser regulations going forward.

Besides, Alibaba isn't a dinosaur company with no growth catalyst. Last i checked, it has two growth engines which is international  ecommerce and cloud computing.

So many arguments for and against. 

One's head can really spin if we can't think for ourselves.

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