Golden Agri - An Interesting Play

"No Fear, No Greed, High Emotion equals low IQ"..."No Fear, No Greed, High Emotion equals low IQ"...we have been chanting this in unison for the past 3 years. This has been a daily routine for us . 100 times before we sleep. 100 times after we wake up.But we digress again..as usual..So whats been in our radar lately?Golden Agri!

Golden Agri has been hogging the top spot in volume trade lately. According to Reuters, it's director, Raphael B. Concepcion, recently mentioned that they are looking at acquisitions now. What an interesting stock..is it a good investment? Let us take a look at some hard facts, shall we?

Based on Thomson Reuters, the net tangible value of Golden Agri is way higher , more than twice, its closing price. Compared to its competitors, it does seem cheap! Yes, it does look damn cheap. But let's not jump to conclusions, shall we? Let's look at one of the most important data (in our opinion). Its Free Cash Flow.

Indo Agri (Below)

Golden Agri(Below)

Wilmar

As we can see, Golden Agri has been enjoying a rather consistent history of free cash flow since 2003 except for that blip in 2006. Indofood Agri does not have a long history of data and Wilmar..oh my...seem to have a rather consistent history of negative free cash flow.

Hmm...Golden Agri just sounds too good to be true!It seems there can only be 2 outcomes, for Wilmar and Indo Agri to go down in price or for Golden Agri to go up in price..which do you think? We just can't wait for 12 November 2008 for the financial statement!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Battle of the Agri Commodities - Yo! Mr Jim Rogerferderer... Are you Shorting Any of these..pls let Us Know!

Yo! Mr Jim Rogerferederer....Le4 Ho2 Sei3 Bo2. (Hokkien for how do you do!). Can you please kindly advise us whether you are shorting any of these commodities and we will follow up....Yours Sincerely, SGDividends..

WILMAR Income Statement (ABOVE)

GOLDEN AGRI Income Statement(ABOVE)

Round 1: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe the reason for Wilmar's low gross margin is because it wanna undercut and gain market share?..maybe... ( anyone in the industry know about this? Please stand up!)

WILMAR Balance Sheet(ABOVE)

Golden Agri balance sheet (ABOVE)

Round 2: Golden Agri Wins!But maybe Wilmar is expanding aggressively, thats why they have more debt....maybe

WILMAR Cash Flow (ABOVE)

Indo Agri Cash Flow (ABOVE)

Round 3: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe Wilmar is rapidly increasing it's inventories in an anticipation of a larger market share? ..Maybe.....

WILMAR's Worth per share (ABOVE)

Golden Agri Worth per share (ABOVE)

Round 4: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe Wilmar want to be more high class and glam???

So why is GOLDEN AGRI HOGGING THE TOP SPOT IN VOLUME TRADES AND FALLING SO MUCH LATELY ?

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team