How Low Could the STI Counters Possibly Get...Let's Calculate

Ah...The million dollar question on when the STI's low will be reached, so let us attempt this with some tangible data based on the last 2 recessions, the Asian Financial Crisis ( 97/98) and Sars ( 02/03). Actually, the idea to blog this was from a post from a website called money-and-girls.blogspot.com ( yeah you perverts...you saw it right...girls...) who took the data from another website which we would have definitely acknowledged if we knew.

Below is the data showing the percentage decline from the peak 93/98 high to 97/98 low during the Asian Financial Crisis and from the peak 99/00 high to 02/03 low during the Sars period for the various STI counters.

The above is taken from money-and-girls.blogspot.com

Let's use this percentage data to calculate the possible decline for the various STI counters in this financial crisis...shall we? See below document( The document below was done by SGDividends)

Possible Low

(Please note that those highlighted in blue are those stock counters that were listed during the 2 time periods from boom to bust...and we will only focus on these)

So what can the above tell us?

From the second document, it seems that there could possibly be more downside to go for many of the STI counters if one were to base strictly on history alone, ceteris paribus. The first document highlights something interesting. Notice that for nearly all the Straits Times index counters, their 02/03 lows were higher than their 97/98 lows. However, if one were to compare their 97/98 highs to their 02/03 highs, this pattern does not exist.

Therefore, a lesson learnt is that one should never ever invest when its a boom year cos you might just be stuck for ages and one should always invest in a recessionary or depression-like year as its highly probable that you will still make money even if you had not sold out your stock positions by the next downturn.

But then again, pls be mindful that its not always 100% true that the most recent low will be higher than the previous low as seen by the Nikkei index below from 1984 to current where the low just get lower and lower....poor japanese investors!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

SGDividends Watchlist 1 - Price per Average Free Cash Flow

Below is a list of SGX stocks which are on our watchlists. Column L (the one at the furthest right)shows the Price divided by Average Free Cash Flow per share. The lower this value, the more "value" a share is deemed to be by this valuation method. We have always maintained that this form of valuation is more conservative and better than price/earnings.See link in our step-by-step DIY investing.

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Warren Buffet's Opinions - Most recent 2008 Letter

Finally, its out...like an eager beaver, we read his letters with glee. Just some opinions from Warren Buffet.
His Thoughts on the Economy
"We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."

His Thoughts On Future Oil Prices
"Without urging from Charlie or anyone else, I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."

His Thoughts on Holding Treasury Bills and Cash

"The investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it. This change has not been minor; the pendulum has covered an extraordinary arc. A few years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that yields like today’s could have been obtained on good-grade municipal or corporate bonds even while risk-free governments offered near-zero returns on short-term bonds and no better than a pittance on long-terms. When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary. Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

Approval, though, is not the goal of investing. In fact, approval is often counter-productive because it sedates the brain and makes it less receptive to new facts or a re-examination of conclusions formed earlier. Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns."
Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Infrastructure-Related Equities - Comment by Hot Sexy Student

4 days ago, our hot sexy student knocked on our door. ( In case you have not been following us, we mentioned about this student some articles back. She predicted a recession or some anomaly sometime back in late 2006. Student is now currently studying in Victoria Junior College...she told us to say one in return for her continued ad-hoc advise.Yes, we are quite shameless to sometimes ask for a teenager's advise in managing money but hey, thats to broaden our perspective. You stone-headed, "know-it-all" adults!)

According to her, keynesian policies advocate pump priming by governments during times of economic duress to stimulate the economy. Such pump priming activities include spending on Infrastructure, defence related stuff and e.t.c. With that she left, leaving her sweet perfume lingering in the air and us, baffled at what she meant and what she was trying to prove. Anyway, we came to a conclusion that she was just flirting with us and left it at that.

A few hours later, we were reading THEEDGE magazine and chanced upon this article on "Emerging markets: Bear Rally or Long Bull Run".

Quote:

Building in emerging markets might slow for a while but infrastructure needs are still very much intact in the developing word, says[ Name suppressed to prevent speculation ] . A lot of government spending on railways, roads, ports and airports in emerging markets is direct budgetary spending, which won't be affected by the global credit squeeze, he notes.

There is also pump-priming through fiscal stimulus packages that invariably include big chunks of infrastructure spending. As exports slow, many developing economies in Asia, Latin Amercia, Eastern Europe and Africa are being pump-primed with increased budgetary spending on infrastructure." Unquote.

Alas, we knew what the hot sexy "oracle" meant. What services are needed for infrastructure building? Not all severly beaten construction companies are the same it seems. Think specialist. Your guess is as good as ours.

Also just something which caught our eye from THEEDGE to share. (Not that it will affect our team's strategy, of cos).

"Since 1945, the average return for US shares under Republican presidents has been 10.2% per annum versus 15.1% per annum under Democrats". So, who would you vote for?

Heres a pic that looks like our hot sexy "oracle".

Capturing a Bottom? From Another Perspective...

Below is an opinion from Dennis Wee from www.HousingLoanSG.com. You should check out his site, some articles are great especially the one regarding the topic of "should you stretch your HDB loan". (Ans is yes of cos to the max...)

Quote:
"In the last few months, many people have come out to say from time to time that "we are close to a bottom". I especially find remarks from Mr Wong from fundsupermart funny. Why? I've lost count how many times I heard him say something like that for the last 7 months since Mar 2008.
He would say something like that:"no one can pick the bottom, but markets are now looking cheap and we are either at a bottom or approaching one soon...."
From my observation, stock markets typically bottom with a "double bottom", it looks something like a "W" character. Can you see the "W" (double bottom formation) of the Dow chart below, the first bottom was in year 2002 at about 7,528 as I have marked out, the 2nd bottom was in Mar 2003.

Another thing you notice is that there are a "few months" separating the 2 bottoms, which give you enough time to buy stocks even if you have missed the second bottom.

My observation tells me that markets typically bottom after 3 things:
1. most people have run out of money to invest. (because they invested all their money too early).
2. the few who still have money, majority of them are too afraid to invest, because they have already lost a lot of money investing.
3. As mentioned, I observe that stock markets typically bottom when the economy is at its worst.

For example, in 1996 after markets peaked, it only bottom in Oct 1998.
In year 2000, after markets crashed, it only bottom in March 2003.

Singapore has just entered into a technical recession, and govt has come out to warn Singaporeans about bad times ahead.

Thus, it is clear that Singapore's economy has not reached the worst stage yet and thus, any stock market rallies in the meantime is likely to be a Bear Market Rally (trap) rather than recovery.

Let the Market Bottom Passes You By
As mentioned, one way to reduce risk is to let the market bottom passes you by, instead of trying to pick the bottom. Of course, by letting the market bottom passes you, you might end up paying 10% to 25% higher prices for stocks. However, if each Bull Market Cycle is 3 to 5 years, and prices might go up 100% to 300% in each cycle, I would rather pay a higher price than risk catching a "falling knife" (you buy cheap, but prices get even cheaper)."
Unquote

SGDividends says: Well, so many experts saying this and that. We remember in early part of 2008 or end 2007, we hear so many so called GURUs mention that the stock market will pick up by end 1st quarter of this year. Later it did not materialise and they pushed it back to Mid-year 2008 and yet again it did not materialise. Now some GURUs are again saying that the market will pick up in mid-2009. So many wrong calls from so-called experts. The morale of the story is : As long as the company is cheap based on fundamentals like NTA, Gross Profit, strong balance sheet, high barrier to entries, unfair advantage, strong management (integrity), strong prospects , not overly dependent on a few customers or suppliers, good debt profile, porters five forces....e.t.c just whack your heirloom and life savings into such companies. ( Yes we are pretty risk-taking..we hear...cos we have a long time horizon). We don't see the point of catching a bottom....Our 21 cents worth. What Dennis says makes sense though..but we just don't bother about a bottom when investing..though we do still punt cos it looks cool if we are right. VIX Indicator!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

So Do You Think We have Bottomed?Ask Your Auntie and Uncle

Below is an article extracted from a US newspaper published on 24 Oct 2008 where they mentioned their 5 reasons they do not believe market has bottomed.(Which SGDividends shares the view too. See our article on 9 October where we say we are still 1/2-3/4( as in around 1/2 to 1/4 more to a market bottom, reaching there). In red are our commentateries.Charts are placed by SGDividends. Must say or else gana sued. USA is Sue King. Singapore is Complain King. ( but we are seeing an emergence of Sue kings here)

Stocks Haven't Bottomed
The best news today is that most indexes didn't breach intraday lows set on October 10. The bad news is we're still testing them. (For the record: Intraday lows on that day were 7884 on the Dow and 840 on the S&P 500.) Even after most markets crashed by more than 25 percent in the past month, the longer we spend bouncing around lows amid huge volatility, the longer daily trade will remain a white-knuckled ride.
(SGDividends: Good morning ladies and gentlemen..*beads of sweat trickling down*...erhem....*silence for a moment* ...We have no Comments only to say that the Spore market laggs the US market...and wait till this local earnings season has passed and more layoffs have been announced.)
The Dollar's Rise Is Fear-Fueled
While world markets sink, the dollar is continuing to climb. While that's great for American purchasing power, the disconnect going on in currency markets right now is a big part of what's keeping traders spooked. The yen is rallying hugely too, hitting a 13-year high against the dollar today. The rise in both comes thanks to cash fleeing riskier markets around the world and seeking out the safe-haven currencies. (Another good indicator on why Market's have not bottom. However, SGDividends think this is highly irrational. Because we bet our pet monkey's banana that in the long run the US dollar will go down. The "wisdom" of the crowd.....tsk tsk.Transfer here transfer there...won't you lose out on transaction costs? Unless you are a Forex trader...)

The Global Recession Looms

The drop in the stock market made its way around most of the globe before hitting the United States. Japan, Germany, and Britain all watched with horror as their stock markets slumped close to double digits in a single day. It's a loud hint that the problems in credit and the economy that sent U.S. markets into the tank over the past several months are not a local phenomenon. Also, Britain's GDP shrank 0.5 percent in the quarter, a sign that a '90s style recession is in the works. The sterling had its worst day against the dollar in 37 years. For American investors, it's the latest confirmation that hoped-for export growth won't do much to boost U.S. sales as the entire globe suffers an economic slowdown. Two other points there: Gold and oil prices continue to drop as commodity demand says a global slowdown is already here.

(SGDividends: Did't we hear people calling us to invest in Gold not so long ago? Didn't it appear in newspapers not so long ago?And how about Commodities in Newspapers? Morale of the story is go against the crowd. When newspapers publish something to promote it...its most probably the time to sell.....quite logical but safety in numbers..we hear...Another way is to go to the market and talk to aunties and uncles, drink kopi with them, massage their backs, rub their legs "chikopek" them and ask for their advise. Then do the opposite.We think this is very very accurate. Fund Managers should consider employing these people to give views internally, then publish the opposite. Quite sure will beat benchmark index easily.***Not disrepectful of the elderly, its just that they are laggards of the grapevine.)

Earnings Are Still Falling

You hear a lot about how stocks are cheap these days, but whether you think that's true depends on whether you trust earning estimates. Today, Sony and Daimler scaled back their earnings forecasts. So far, the third quarter has been a season of lowered expectations as analysts slash their 2008 and 2009 forecasts. And even after all of this, markets may not be cheap yet: Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch notes the history of price-to-earnings ratios show stocks don't necessarily look cheap at these levels. Using as-reported, trailing 12-month EPS, P/E ratios have been higher than they are now only 21 percent of months since 1871. That means stocks now are more expensive than 79 percent of the months going back 138 years. Tough odds, those. (SGDividends: Earnings season in Singapore now.And the above article uses the P/E which we think is quite crappy by the way ..this ratio.)

Credit Refreezes

Schadenfreude was flying yesterday after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he was "shocked" at the credit market "tsunami" and admitted he was "partially" wrong not to regulate some of the securities that caused the problem as they evolved on his watch. His admission came during the first week in months that frozen credit markets showed early signs of a gradual thaw—until last night. The sell-off put the fear right back into banks, as the Libor lending rate jumped 7 points overnight to 1.28 percent. It looks as if we've taken a step back. A loss in confidence between lenders around the globe was beginning the slow process of reversing itself for most of the past week, and that improvement was viewed as a first step on the road to recovery. That has now stalled in various corners of the credit market. Investment grade debt is weakening, too. (SGDividends: Not comments...go read the newspapers. )

Volatility Signals Confusion
Market volumes were about average despite the swings, but fear is still sending indexes whipsawing. The VIX index, Wall Street's "fear gauge," hit a record high of 81.17 when the market hit its current low on October 10. It traded near 86 at the open before falling back as the market's worst fears went unrealized. Six months ago, the VIX was around 20. (SGDividends: Its one of the indicator we use.)

This is Noble..Yup like a White Knight? Or are you?

4 October 08 - JP Morgan say OVERWEIGHT. " Price Target S$2.00"

3 October 08 - Macquarie say OUTPERFORM."Valuation S$2.88"
8 September 08 - OCBC say BUY . " Fair Value S$2.99 fair value"
15 August 08 - Merril Lynch say BUY. " Price Objective S$3.15".
15 August 08 - Credit Suisse say Outperform. "Target Price S$3.45."

And many more!!!!!

WOW. Investors should feel safe. So many "steady bom pi pi" instuitions forecast it will go higher sia...Power! But SGDividends as always, don't take it seriously, as its our money we are talking here...not theirs.......Let's get down to business...shall we?

Income statement ABOVE.

Net Profit Margin: 1.46% ( Hello..is this thin margin common to players in this industry)

Gross Profit Margin: 3.9%

Balance Sheet ABOVE

Debt Repayment: OK. It can repay its debt..since current assets greater than current liabilities

Some Footnotes ABOVE

Interest payable : 6.625% interest and 8.50% interest.....Hmm...but its still some time later that they can repay, when this crisis should have abated.

CashFlow Statement ABOVE

Money Come in : Negative!.. Why Why Why.

Worth of Company per Share ABOVE

Worth it?: Now it is S$0.69 ( end 17 Oct 08). Cheap it seems , but its common in this period so not really useful don't you think?

SGDividends: Do You Think this is a strong company? Ask yourself or why not call your Analyst.....and do you know that Michel Harouche, a director, just resigned, and sold some shares in Noble (9 Oct 2008 and on 8 Oct 2008) at about the same time before he left ? Maybe because he wanted to buy a house or maybe maybe ......so many maybes so little time... SGDividends is compiling a list of stocks on your right as we research into more companies. We will categorize as fundamentally Hmm, fundamentally average, fundamentally above average, fundamentally strong stocks....Please do your own research also and don't blame us if anything goes wrong ok....steady la...ok!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Battle of the Agri Commodities - Yo! Mr Jim Rogerferderer... Are you Shorting Any of these..pls let Us Know!

Yo! Mr Jim Rogerferederer....Le4 Ho2 Sei3 Bo2. (Hokkien for how do you do!). Can you please kindly advise us whether you are shorting any of these commodities and we will follow up....Yours Sincerely, SGDividends..

WILMAR Income Statement (ABOVE)

GOLDEN AGRI Income Statement(ABOVE)

Round 1: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe the reason for Wilmar's low gross margin is because it wanna undercut and gain market share?..maybe... ( anyone in the industry know about this? Please stand up!)

WILMAR Balance Sheet(ABOVE)

Golden Agri balance sheet (ABOVE)

Round 2: Golden Agri Wins!But maybe Wilmar is expanding aggressively, thats why they have more debt....maybe

WILMAR Cash Flow (ABOVE)

Indo Agri Cash Flow (ABOVE)

Round 3: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe Wilmar is rapidly increasing it's inventories in an anticipation of a larger market share? ..Maybe.....

WILMAR's Worth per share (ABOVE)

Golden Agri Worth per share (ABOVE)

Round 4: Golden Agri Wins! Maybe Wilmar want to be more high class and glam???

So why is GOLDEN AGRI HOGGING THE TOP SPOT IN VOLUME TRADES AND FALLING SO MUCH LATELY ?

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

WingTai .... a sparrow or an eagle lying dormant?

Lately, Wingtai has increased it's stakes in USI holdings. So SGDividends decided to see whether this company's management was mad or not and whether it is overly expanding...and run the risk of not being able to pay their loans, just like Ferrochina. Take note that Wingtai is in the property development business and retail lifestyle business, which will be hit hard in recession...

See the balance sheet above, current liabilities is way less than current assets. Good.....and WOW..it has a CASH WARCHEST which by itself can even pay off 2 times its current liabilities!

See their Cash Flow above.Its cash flow from operations is also consistently making positve flows, even after deducting from their expenditure needed to sustain the business...its still positive....Good.

And look at its Net Asset Value ( what the company is worth per share)....$2.03. And how much is a share now? $0.73. ( But then again most companies are cheap now...aren't it?).And guess what..nearly everyday from 1 Sep 2008, they have been consistently buying back their shares.....why not..they are Cash Rich!Definitely in our watchlist!!We give it 5 chilli padis!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Cambridge Reit - UBS Owns...Disowns...Owns..Disowns..

14-10-2008 - UBS increases from 4.98% ---> 5.02%

13-10-2008 - UBS reduces from 5.00% ---> 4.98%

29-09-2008 - UBS increases from 1.97% ---> 5.38%

24-09-2008 - UBS reduces from 5.88% ---> 2.37%

19 -09-2008 - UBS increases from 2.56% ---> 5.82%

Wow...won't they be incurring some transaction costs there! Anyway this stock is a stock to watch given its many weird transactions by UBS.

Maybe Schroder was "dulan" and reduced their holdings from 6.05% ---> 5.988% on 10 -10-2008.

High dividend yield..yes..lock in long leases..yes ..but small scale tenants amid these troubled times. Watch this stock!

SembCorp Marine ..Ho Hum..ZZzzzzzz

Was searching for the latest statements for SembMarine and spotted the error in their investor relations page. 2007 instead of 2008. But we digress..this is not impt

See below: Net Profit Margin at 9.6% ( Compare with Cosco's 18%!)
See below: Current Asset(CA) greater then Current Liabilities(CL)! (while Cosco's CA is lower than CL)

See Below: Since Sembmarine's bulk of its business comes from Rigbuilding, we decided to look at the utilization rates (2nd light blue table below) of rigs world wide to try to infer activity which is related with the demand for rigs. Well Well Well..so far so good, no dip in utilization rates (in fact it has increased, slightly, now at 89% vs 87.5% a month ago, hmm even though the price of oil has gone down!).(Actually we are watching CNBC now seeing the price of oil dipping like a dipstick to 76! Cheap Petrol..Yahoo!)

Really, SembMarine to SGDividends is So So..not good not bad..not here not there...but it will definitely be out of our watchlist. Its average fundamentally, we think!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Cosco..Another China Counter Being Beaten Down..Is It Justified?

We noted the beating of Cosco today. As of now 12.30pm ...trading between a range 0.94 - 0.76.Wow. We noted that DMG gave a sell call of this counter...stating some reasons and more reasons and much more reasons..qualitatively..which is true actually. We noted also BT had a report on it with Credit Suisse saying something about drifting lower.

But, let's take a step back..clear our heads a bit, relax..and think simply, shall we? Let's look at some quantitative figures....

Net Profit Margin: 18.71 % ( Ok still some room to maneurvure if demand sucks or supply sucks, compare again with Ferrochina.!)

Debt repayment ability (sorry we refuse to use jargon, bear with us ok!): CA less than CL. ( Hmm but its not that much of a shortfall. not like Ferrochina!)

Cash Flow Muscle: Pretty strong. As you see its Cash from Operations has been positive since 2003 and guess what..even after netting off capital expenditure ( the expenditure needed to sustain this business..in simplified terms) its still positive! ( Some people call it free cash flow..a jargon we prefer not to use) . This is a good sign!

SGDividends: Why are we wasting our time on this report? Cos here at SGDiviedends, we refuse to take Analysts reports seriously, Credit Suiise, DMG..blah blah blah... Look at the company's numbers first(MOST IMPT)..take care of its downside first..before using reasons like order book, economy slowdown,risk of order cancellation, delivery delays( which are of cos darn impt too) but kinda fluffy dont you think.

Our recommendation: Your Guess is as good as mine? Decide for yourself!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

A Rose Among the Thorns? Perhaps..Perhaps..Perhaps..

Thanks to zhuangzi (A reader) she did mention a very good point that since REITS are required to give out a bulk of their income as dividends, this results in a low cash position...resulting in REITS generally having low current assets (CA ). See my previous post.

So good ol' "kaypoh" SGDividends decided to comb the SGX REIT Realm and true enough most indeed have their CA lower than their current liabilities CL. But we did find one REIT which balks the trend. Its Fortune Reit. See chart below! Its CA is higher than its CL.

And guess what my friends..who do you think has some shares in it too? (hint hint..the splendid folks who invested in Merill Lynch)

SGDividends : Eh if you buy then something go awry dont blame us ok....we are just stating facts and being unbiased ..pls read up carefully before investing. Steady Bom pi pi boh..

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Safer than Saving Accounts and Higher Returns???

Wow...a reader just told us about this investment idea...safer than the bank deposit and earning more than the rate of return of savings interest, fixed Deposits or even money market funds! Sounds like the perfect plan...but if it sounds too good to be true..it probably is (maybe)..research at your own risk!

7% - 10% returns per annum and safer than bank deposits. Low risk, high returns ( an anomaly, we have always thought the next safest place after the saving account is our Khong Guan Biskit Tin or under our mattress...)

This is taken from their website on why its safer:

Protection of TEPs

Traded Endowments are even "safer" than S$ Bank Deposits. Singapore only has maximum Deposit Insurance up to S$20,000 per bank. Even if you have S$1 million with a bank, you only get back S$20,000 if the bank goes into trouble.

For Traded Endowment, the protection is 90% of the amount of policy cash value, not subject to a maximum amount. Below is the company stating this claims.

Pls note that SGDividends is new to this thing too and we are not here to promote anything..just for awareness sake.....steady boh!

It's Mr YangjiJiang. How Do You Do?

Let's look at Mr YangJiJiang shall we? Let's see if its at the risk of becoming like Sir Ferrochina. ( SGDividends will be using Sir Ferrochina as the benchmark.). So why are we doing this? Cos we are now looking at stocks to put on our radar screen and since we are analysing, why not share it to the world. Fact Facts Facts..thats what SGdividends hanker after...not fluff.

OK. Looking at the above. This company is seems pretty safe in terms of repaying its liabilities. Current Assets: RMB1612,183 VS Current Liabilities: RMB504,321. What's lovely is that it has Cash and its equivalent of RMB852,374. What this means is....it can repay debts which are due within a year easily as it has CURRENT ASSETS more than its CURRENT LIABILITIES. ( Im looking at the 2nd column of the charts above from the right , in case you are looking somewhere else.) In fact using their CASH is enough to pay their CURRENT LIABILITIES already.

Now lets Compare with Sir Ferrochina, shall we? ( This was released when analysts were still issuing buy calls..Lelong ah..they think what..durians ah)

Current Assets : 11,530 VS Current Liabilities 116,790 ( 2nd column from right) See how much they have to repay at the third chart!

Compare and contrast Mr YangJiJiang and Sir Ferrochina....Your Guess is as Good as mine !(The above are the latest financial statements available at this point of time publicly, btw.)

Investing Tip: At such times like this, look at debts of the company..seriously..share value fall never mind...but as long as they dont disappear ...games not over. Take care of the downside!

Important: The objective of the articles in this blog is to set you thinking about the company before you invest your hard-earned money. Do not invest solely based on this article. Unlike House or Instituitional Analysts who have to maintain relations with corporations due to investment banking relations, generating commissions,e.t.c, SGDividends say things as it is, factually. Unlike Analyst who have to be "uptight" and "cheem", we make it simplified and cheapskate. -The Vigilante Investor, SGDividends Team

Best Stock Trading Account? It depends..

Given so many people have asked which is the best trading account to have. SGDividends will just say, why not have them all. Seriously, dudes or dudettes.. Opening Stock Trading Accounts is free in Singapore, there is no restriction on how many accounts you can have and no monthly account maintenance fees. And they have their individual strengths and weaknesses.

For SGDividends, we have 3 trading accounts. Citibank Brokerage, DBSV (Online) and POEMS.

Why these 3? See below for the reasons.

Citibank (Dreams never sleeps....Ambition never sleeps) charges the lowest commissions at min of $22 per online trade for local SG shares. The others are min $25. Yes Yes, we know $3 bucks is not much but hey why not, since all local SG shares go to the same custodian CDP account eventually and both takes the same effort to place the trade and if you invest, dollar cost averaging a lot like ..erhem us during this crisis period, it gets quite substantial. SGDividends use this account to buy SG shares for the long term.

DBSVickers Online has no custodian fees for US shares custodised with them. So if you are buying US shares for the long term, this is a good choice, compared to Citibank's minimum $5 semi-annual custody charge and POEM's minimum $2.14 monthly charge per US counter. SGDividends use this account to buy US shares for the long term.

What we like about POEMS is it SBL (Share, Borrowing and Lending )account. SGDividends use this account as a tool for us to predict which shares will be cover shorted, so as to stand ready to scoop them up when they are going down ridiculously.