Monday, November 22, 2021

A Quick Comment on Alibaba


Alibaba recently released their results which apparently disappointed the market and caused an immediate plunge of 10%.

I am sure by now that everyone knows the market is irrational and no one can forecast what the price can be in 1 months , 3 months or even 1 year's time.

Even the guru's or big boys' actions are conflicting. 

Temasek trimmed their position but Charlie Munger, co -partner of Warren Buffet in Berkshire Hathaway actually loaded more quite recently.

So who's right , who's wrong? 

If one were to read all the opinions in forums, one would be seriously confused.

Data from www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/BABA/financials

In 2017, Alibaba had a share price of US$140. 

Now, Alibaba has a share price of around US$140 again.

But Alibaba is a much more valuable company now than it was in 2017, at least 3 times. Theoretically, its share price should be at least 3 times of US$140 in 2017 making it US$420 today if we were to go along this line of logic. Of course, one can look at it in another way and say that since the current price is US$140, the price in 2017 should have been US$47 and US$140 was too overvalued in 2017. This is perfectly reasonable too.

I think what is happening now is just investor sentiment based on the regulatory clampdowns and also the market focus on the slower growth which based on maths, the larger a company is, the base is larger hence the growth has to slow also.

I am of the opinion that once the regulatory situation dies down, Alibaba share price should do better.

In 2017, there was Xi Jinping. In 2021 Xi Jinping is still the president, just that now, people know what he can and will do and it is more clear.

An optimist can say with so much regulations compressed into these past 6 months, the only way is lesser regulations going forward.

Besides, Alibaba isn't a dinosaur company with no growth catalyst. Last i checked, it has two growth engines which is international  ecommerce and cloud computing.

So many arguments for and against. 

One's head can really spin if we can't think for ourselves.

Friday, November 19, 2021

What is the actual inflation rate one should use for FIRE?

My son. perspiring profusely, came back empty handed after walking 400m in the sweltering heat. 

"Dad, your $1.50 is not enough! My milo peng cost $1.80 now. "

A teachable moment. 

I hoped he learnt two things from this ordeal. 

Inflation and the need to plan for things going wrong a.k.a margin of safety and ask for some additional coins in future.

"Here is 30 cents! Go, my young padawan and bring back the elusive milo peng to quench your thirst. Get me the delectable bak chor mee, less chilli. Take another $3.50 for the mee. It was $3.50 last month."

He rushed out immediately. Guess he didn't learnt his lesson on the need for a margin of safety and inflation. He will learnt some day..for he must learn.


Weightage of basket (Figure 1) 

Source : Department of Statistics Singapore

Breakdown on Basket (Figure 2)

Source: Department of Statistics Singapore

Annual inflation rates from 1960 to 2020 (Figure 3)

Source: Data.gov.sg

The latest annual inflation rate (released in Sep 2021) is 2.5%. This is the short term data based on the previous year and is according to the CPI weighting pattern in figure 1. If one looks at the weightage of the basket of goods used to measure this inflation rate, i can't say it reflects well the inflation experienced by the residents of Singapore. Look at the lower weightage of Healthcare (6.6%) and Education ( 6.6%) compared to Recreation and Culture (7.9%).....I don't think i spend much on Recreation and Culture as compared to Healthcare and Education.  

For a more accurate inflation figure to use, I think one should look at one's personal spending habits to determine one's estimated inflation rate. 

A 50 year old single would not need to care about the inflation for Education but a 25 year old dad with a new born would be really concerned about education inflation. 

Based on data from 1960 - 2020, the various long term inflation for the different baskets are shown in Figure 3. Highlighted in yellow are the ones which are important to me and i think to the majority of others. The rest are really non-essential, good to have items( apart from Housing and Utilities which is essential but my housing is settled).

As a matter of prudence, my personal estimated inflation would be 3.22%pa  which corresponds to the inflation rate of education.

So what have i been doing to beat this inflation.

Endowus

Endowus opened last year(2020)



My Endowus funds have been doing well at 17.62% returns since i started late last year. I have chosen the customised 60% equity/40% bonds and 100% equity funds and used my SRS funds only, saving on my marginal tax rate yearly on this funds. Do not make the mistake of attributing the performance of funds to Endowus as they are simply a platform to sell funds. You make the choice of funds to buy. ( ok for the customised only funds, they chose the allocation so they had a hand in this).

The use of SRS funds is highly restrictive and i believe placing them with Endowus is the best choice.

Use my Endowus referral code to get $20 in access fee credit

IBKR

My cash has been placed with InteractiveBrokers due to it's very very low commission charges for both shares, etfs, options and forex transactions and its ability to invest in many differerent countries. What really hits me in the right spot is the ultra low financing fees of between 1.58%pa to 0.75%pa (for USD) depending on amount borrowed which allows me to leverage .

Forex , stock and etfs transaction fees are only around $2-3 per transaction regardless of amount. That's insane. Downside is that some exchange prices like from the US are delayed and one has to pay for live subscriptions which cheapskate me obviously don't. This problem is easily solved by the two brokers below which give free live US prices. I toggle between the apps to look at prices and transact.

Use my IBKR referral code to get free IBKR shares.

Tiger Brokers


Use my Tiger referral code to get free apple shares.

Moomoo


Use my Moomoo referral code to get SGD200 Stock Cash Coupon

My son came back without the Bak Chor mee as it has inflated in price. Hope my son has learnt some lessons. 

Monday, November 15, 2021

I have been putting money in the markets. Here is why.

Still building one's war chest waiting to shoot with an elephant gun when a major crash happens?

Covid seemed like an Armageddon-like event that could have rivaled or surpassed the Great Financial Crisis of 2009.

I remembered viewing a property in February 2020 and viewing the same property in October 2020. I was quite surprised that the price rose. 

Probably its the debt moratorium, wage support, Fed money printing or whatever but it is important to know what is really happening now.

The equity markets have been roaring and there are still some who are predicting that the market will crash when the rates start to rise.

Maybe they are right, maybe not....i have been in the markets for too long to know that no one knows for certain. No one expected how pervasive Covid would affect our lives  in 2019.

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-saving-rate


Personal Savings as a percentage of disposable personal income

The main media coverage of Covid started in around February/March 2020 and from then on, the savings rate of Americans has increased to around twice or more than their prior savings rate of around 7% in January 2020. 

Covid has helped Americans save. 

The savings rate reached their pre-covid state from around September 2021 onwards which mean they are starting to spend more like last time.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm



Household Debt Service Ratio

The Household Debt Service Ratio is the ratio of total required household debt payments to total disposable income.
From a debt serving ratio (%) perspective, their debt has reduced drastically post-Covid. 

Americans have historically high debt servicing ratios but it has been improving.

Before 2009 GFC, the ratio was between 11% to 13% . 
After 2009 GFC to 2019, the ratio was around 10%.
In 2021, the ratio is now below 9%.

 

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/corporate-profits


US Corporate Profits

US corporate profits have been on a uptrend, higher than it was pre-covid.

More savings, less debt and better corporate profits in the world's largest economy.

What's the probability that a US stock market ( S&P 500) crash is imminent after such a seemingly stretched run-up of prices?

To be clear, a crash is not a correction which is 10% from ATH.

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

SP Wholesale Electricity Plan - Going for it!

We know that if Shop A buys a product from Shop B, Shop A will then mark up the price of the product and then sell it to the consumer.  To get a cheaper price, the consumer can go directly to Shop B.

Similarly, if electricity retailers buy at the wholesale electricity price and then sell it to residential consumers, wouldn't it make sense that residential consumers would get it cheaper if they buy directly at the wholesale electricity price?

The markup in price by the electricity retailers is basically to compensate them for the risk they take. They buy at volatile prices and sell at fixed prices. Residential consumers are therefore paying for price certainty a.k.a peace of mind. But is this peace of mind really worth it? 

Below is the comparison of the 3 different electricity plans without GST.


This SP Wholesale Electricity Plan is the most complicated of the 3 as it comprises of additional charges on top of the wholesale electricity price (WEP). These additional charges are as follows:

Updated 3 november 2021

Only the Vesting Contract Debit/Credit is variable but it is usually a few cents per month and sometimes $0. The rest of the charges are available online and known beforehand. Peak period is between 7am to 11pm. For simplicity, i took the average of the peak and off peak rates. These additional charges are under the column "charges" which is added to WEP.

Comparison

This table can also be found here which is updated monthly.

No wonder so many electricity retailers have chosen to throw in the towel recently! 

From Jan 2020 to June 2021, there is a significant price difference between the WEP prices ( blue column) and electricity retailer prices( green column), with the WEP prices always being lower. It is only in July 2021 onwards where the price differences is very low with July 2021 being the only month where the WEP price exceeded the electricity retailer price.

It seems that a switch to the SP wholesale electricity plan is a no-brainer...or is it really? 

It depends.

The table above shows average prices and so neglects the volatility of prices of the WEP prices. It depends on one's usage of electricity at home. To be more specific, it depends on when we usually turn on the big guzzlers of electricity like the air conditioners, the water heaters and the washing machines. With WFH, our routines can be quite messed up unlike the Pre-covid times when most of us are in the office between 9am to 6pm.

So when are electricity prices usually more expensive?

I have charted the average WEP and Maximum WEP against the period of the day for the months of July, August and September 2021. The SP regulated tariff and electricity retailer prices are shown in red and green


September 2021


August 2021

July 2021


I would focus more on the Max WEP charts on the right as avoiding these periods of the day where the maximum electricity prices occur would most certainly result in lowering the average wholesale electricity prices even further as seen in the comparison table above. These are generally periods 19 to 45. ( 9.30 am to 10.30 pm) which corresponds well to most workers during pre-covid times as they will not be at home for a majority of this period. So, it really depends on one's routines. 

So in general, if one is out of home or do not have to use energy guzzlers during 9.30 am to 10.30pm, one should prefer the SP wholesale plan?

To illustrate how volatile prices can be, the chart below shows the WEP for a single day on a Saturday, 16 October 2021. One would rationalize that periods when prices are high are when factories, schools and offices are running which falls on during weekdays. However, on this fateful Saturday, the prices were amazingly high even at night when people are sleeping from 11 pm to 1am( periods 46- 48 and periods 0 to 2). Prices average $1.3/kWh during the day, with Max price at $2/kWh at 11.30 am and Min price at $0.27/kWh at 5 am. Even at 1am when most people are asleep, the price hit $1.97/kWh! Remember that additional charges of $0.061/kWh will still have to be added to these prices to get the final price we pay.

Now, which plan would you now choose? 

Previous post

Friday, November 5, 2021

How much should our networth be?

In the book The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy, there is a formula which determines whether we are Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth (PAW) or Under Accumulators of Wealth (UAW). This formula first multiplies your age with your current gross annual income, followed by dividing by 10 to get the expected networth. If my current networth is more than two times the expected networth, i am a PAW. However, if my current networth is less than half the expected networth, i am a UAW. 

Example
Thommy is 50 years old now, currently earning $84,000 gross income per annum. His expected networth now should be $420,000. If his current networth is higher than $840,000, he is a PAW. On the other hand, if his expected networth is less than $210,000, he is a UAW.

I am sure many questions are forming in your heads now. Using this formula to see how we are doing financially now, ignores our future spending needs which is different for everyone. I can survive on cai peng everyday but not another person. I can be very able riding a bicycle as a means of transport but not another less able person. Many more questions! But as with all models, take it with a pinch of salt.  Imagine a fresh grad at 25 years old who has worked 1 year in investment banking and earning $150,000 a year, he would be a UAW! 

The PAW/UAW formula didn't fit what i was looking for. I needed to know whether i was on the right track in terms of whether i was having enough now.  To know that, i needed to project
  • my estimated expenditure after retirement
  • my annual contributions to my retirement fund till i retire
  • the inflation rate
  • my rate of return of my retirement fund if i had invested them
This retirement fund is to be used fully by the time i passed away.
The retirement age will be 63 ( as per Ministry of Manpower in 2022) and the date of passing away will be projected to be 86 (as per the female life expectancy in 2021 by Singstat). Females generally live longer than males who are expected to pass away at 81 (2021 by Singstat) and using 86 is a matter of prudence as life throws curveballs at us.

Example
Esther is 41 years old. She wonders if she currently have enough money to fund her retirement. She has been spending $4000 a month on her lifestyle and would like to continue her quality of living in retirement. Inflation has been hovering around 2% pa historically and she has been getting 5% pa on her retirement fund investments.
She has been contributing $24,000 a year into her retirement fund with ease and believes she can do this till retirement at age 63. 

Her networth now should be $201,222. 

A lot of things have to go right for Esther to be comfortable with $201,222. She has to be able to contribute $24,000 annually for 22 years to retirement by being gainfully employed, being healthy, not being scammed ,not facing a global financial crisis somewhere along the route to retirement e.t.c. As life do throw curveballs at us sometimes, it would be better to have much more that this networth to be comfortable.

Sunday, October 31, 2021

Which electricity plan to choose?

Our Geneco fixed plan contract ends in February 2022. The rate we are enjoying now is $0.1662 kWh ( without GST). The current Geneco fixed plans in the market is $0.2334 kWh ( without GST) . This is a 40% increase in rates. This is a lot! My electricity bills average about $150 per month, a 40% increase is a $60 increase per month.

This is a comparison table on the best fixed plan , best discount off and SP regulated Tariff. 

Updated 31 Oct

A quick summary on the options available to the readers. In Singapore, household residents can choose to buy electricity from three sources.
  • Singapore Power under the regulated tariff plan ( regulated by Energy Market Authority)
  • Singapore electricity retailers ( Geneco, Keppel electric, Senoko, Pacific light, Tuas power, Sembcorp e.t.c)
  • Singapore Power under the wholesale electricity plan
The trades offs between the above are price stability, prices, contracts lock-in and promotions such a credit card discounts or promo codes. 

In my opinion, one should never choose the SP regulated tariffs so i was quite surprised to read on papers that about 50% of households are still on the SP regulated tariffs. Get out of it! Its a low lying sure save money choice.

It was reported in the papers that a very small percentage are on the SP wholesale electricity plan. 
Let us see how wholesale electricity prices compare with the SP regulated tariff and electricity retailer prices in September. 

On the horizontal axis, period refers to the time of the day. 
Period 0 - 0000 to 0030
Period 1 - 0030 to 0100
Period 47 - 2300 to 2330
Period 48 - 2330 to 0000

Chart showing the average whole sale electricity for the Sep 2021

Interesting. More due diligence needed. Expect more future posts on the findings.  Perhaps, i could switch to the SP whole electricity plan when my contract ends. What better period to stress test the SP wholesale electricity plan than now when the natural gas prices are so volatile and expensive, with winter coming!

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Property Viewings During Covid

My wife has been pestering me to go property viewing with her during these times. A happy wife is a happy life. So i obliged. 

Based on URA (September 21 to October 21)

The above table are the latest 1 year transactions based on URA from September 2021 to October 2020 for a particular freehold property. 
As gross yield can be really misleading, I decided to do a simple calculator, taking into account all the fees which we will need to pay.
  • Additional buyer stamp duty
  • Buyer stamp duty
  • Seller stamp duty
  • Estimate renovation and furniture
  • Commission paid to agent when we sell this property in future
  • Commission paid to agent when we rent out this property
  • MCST fees
  • Interest rates
  • Property taxes
  • Rental income
We made a few best case assumptions.
  • Property never going to be vacant
  • No replacement of aircon, lights, fridge , sofa etc for the holding period
  • Earned income tax is zero. Meaning only the rental income is included in the income tax.
The calculator used is below and the property used is the one with the smallest size 1000 to1100. sqft.


I used a 10 year holding period for the new property and assumed the property did not appreciate after 10 years. Assuming i took a 30 year loan at 75% loan from the bank with an interest of 1.5%p.a, this is how the series of cashflow is. 

Series of Cashflow

As an investment property, one will have to have the holding power to tahan the first 10 years where the cashflow is negative.

More detailed information on how the above is calculated is found here.

The IRR( returns a year ) is only 0.75%pa.

This is ridiculous to me. I guess the hope would be for the property to appreciate to make the returns. But would interest rates appreciate too to negate the returns?

You can play with the calculator to see the outcomes of different scenarios by adding ABSD based on the number of existing property one has. As of above, the ABSD is $0 based on no existing property holding.
I made my wife an unhappy woman. Unhappy life.

Sunday, July 4, 2021

My review of Moneyowl and Endowus

 [This post is not sponsored and i have accounts with them. The values stated are as per date of post]


The arrival of roboadvisors is a god-send and thanks to them, Singaporeans will be able to build their wealth quicker due to the lower fees. They have laid bare the ridiculous fee structure that have plaqued the wealth management industry. 

Imagine if your traditional finanical advisor sold you the fund above and you invested $100,000. You would have already paid fees of $5,000 at point of purchase due to the initial sales charge of 5%. Additionally, you will be paying $1700 every year due to the management fee, part of this fee going back to the traditional financial advisor as trailer fees and part of it being fund-level fees being paid to the asset managers. This is ridiculous and indeed passive income for the advisor.

Instead, if you had invested this $100,000 with a roboadvisor, you will be paying zero initial sales charge and very likely less than $1700 every year depending on the platform or access fee or the trailer fee rebates given by the roboadvisor. 

The reduction in fees is not a free lunch as the roboadvisors basically does not have much of an advisory, human touch, unlike a traditional financial advisor and they do not give advice on insurances for a complete financial review. ( MoneyOwl has a insurance and will writing on its platform but still no human element).If your traditional financial advisor has been doing a comprehensive financial review, including your insurances and mentoring you well along the away, helping you with medical claims and watching out for you, then please let him earn. Otherwise, fire him and go with the robos.

I am currently using Endowus and Moneyowl as i haven't found a traditional financial advisor who is worth the fees.  I have started with Endowus first as the founders values resonated with me  regarding transparency of fees and to help the public gain access with lower fees. It is quite challenging to compare roboadvisors as they seek to differentiate themselves with different products and each have their plus (negative)points. After reading up more on Moneyowl, i do see how one can further reduce fees at this point in time and i have redeemed all my investment using Cash out of Endowus and investing them into Moneyowl, leaving only my SRS in Endowus.

Both Moneyowl and Endowus are the only roboadvisors to have dimensional funds and these funds have no trailer fee rebates since their fund level fees are already so low. If one were to compare the universe of unit trust funds held by them, dimensional funds have the lowest fund-level-fees and if i were to get bang for the buck, i might as well invest in these which can't be found outside easily. These dimensional funds are unit trust and i could see similarities with popular ETFs such as IWDA and EIMI in terms of underlying composition of companies.  Specifically, IWDA( fund level fees 0.2%pa)  versus dimensional global core equity fund (fund level fees 0.26%pa) and EIMI (fund level fees 0.18%pa) versus dimensional emerging large cap core equity fund (0.36%pa).

Top Sector Weighting

Top Country weighting

Top Company weighting


Top Country weighting


Top Sector weighting

Top company weighting

From above, they are broadly similar in their country and sector weighting with many similar companies in their top 10. In terms of number of underlying holdings:

Dimensional Core equity fund ( fees 0.26%pa) : 7724

IWDA(0.2%pa):1569

Dimensional Emerging Markets large cap core equity fund ( 0.36%pa): 1147 ( this may seem as though it has less companies than EIMI but take note that one of its holding is iShares MSCI India, so the number of holdings understate the true number of companies it has exposure to).

EIMI (0.18%pa): 2998

All the above are irish-domiciled and similar taxes prevail.

Now, a likely question would be: Why would i not want to DIY completely by buying the ETFs  instead of the UT since the fees for the ETFs are cheaper? I see some value in paying more in fund level fees if the number of underlying companies is more ( whether it mutes performance in boom times or crisis is another story). In addition, the UTs are priced in SGD while the ETFs are priced in USD. Rebalancing, investing and redeeming the UTs are less psychologically taxing as we do not have to deal with changing currencies and depending on the broker one uses, currency transaction cost can be expensive. Also, one would not be able to use their SRS to buy the ETFs in the first place. SRS is allowed for the UTs but not for ETFs, so for SRS investing its a no brainer as ETF is not an alternative.

Now the next question would be, how about the additional access fees( also known as platform fees) which are on top of the fund level fees paid to the robos, wouldnt these added layer of  fees now make it much more expensive than to DIY with ETFs? ( We cant DIY with UTs without the roboadvisors or approved financial advisor) This is a question i have been struggling with for many nights for my cash investment and my short answer is, it is better to DIY with etfs for the cash portion if one has the time and is disciplined. Imagine an investment of $100,000, one will be paying a yearly access fee of $600 to the robos (0.6%pa). Don't get me wrong, the robos have to be paid as they provide a service such as automatic rebalancing and access to such cheap UTs but it is too high for essentially something passively held by them without any further work. For me, due to my intense work and family schedule, i am still with the robo advisors for my cash and as usual still having thoughts of changing to DIY with ETFs frequently due to it being so much cheaper. 

Why did i transfer my cash to Moneyowl funds?

Moneyowl has a lower barrier to enjoy lower fees(now till mid 2022, with NTUC60 promo code, there is a 10% off the access fees). Less than 100K is 0.6%pa fees but above that is 0.5%pa. This is for  SRS and CASH. The SRS and CASH can be pooled together for the AUM so its easier to reach $100k to enjoy the 0.5%pa access fee for cash. This is tiered, meaning if one were to invest 110k, the whole amount is charged 0.5%pa and not 0.6%pa for first $100k and 0.5%pa for next 10k.

For Endowus, it is also similarly tiered like Moneyowl.  Less than 200K is 0.6%pa fees but above 200k  is 0.5%pa. Above $1 million, the access fees is 0.35% pa. This is for CASH. For SRS, it is 0.4%pa for any amount. The SRS and CASH cannot be pooled together for the AUM. They are treated separately for the fees unlike Moneyowl.

As i need to reduce the high fees, the strategy is to leave my SRS in Endowus for the  0.4%pa fees and transfer my CASH into Moneyowl for 0.5% pa fees ( being 0.45%pa fees till mid 2022 due to NTUC60 promo code). If Endowus could give a mid tier between $200,000 to $1 million of  0.4%pa fees, then my CASH would be with them. The thing is, there is no transaction fees for both of robos, so there is no switching cost between them.

In summary, i would suggest Endowus using SRS but for cash i would suggest MoneyOwl , until one hits $1 million in cash assets before switching these to Endowus since one would then enjoy a lower 0.35% pa access fees with Endowus. And i wouldn't bother with anything other than Dimensional Core equity and Dimensional emerging markets funds as their fees are the lowest while future performance is always an uncertainty between any other funds, so why risk it.

DIY ETFs through brokerages is still the best in my opinion if one has that time and psychological bandwidth at this point in time to rebalance and DCA until at least the robos lower their access fees to perhaps 0.2-0.3%pa which will make their 1)auto rebalancing,  2)not needing to convert currency and 3) no transaction cost (brokerages charge about 0.2% per buy and sell transaction) worth it. As these funds are usually held long term say 10 years or longer, 0.72% pa ( 0.6%pa access fees + 0.12%pa higher average fund level fees based on dimensional over said IWDA and EIMI ETFs) based on $100,000 investment will cost $720 extra per year and $7200 extra every 10 years.

With the access fees of 0.6%pa, i would not even consider investing my CPF OA. The dimensional funds performance  have to cross the hurdle rate of 3.41%pa guaranteed (2.5%pa CPF return+ 0.6%pa + 0.31%pa average fund level fees of the two said dimensional funds ) to make it breakeven.  Especially so when CPF OA has many important uses such as housing and education and could serve as  emergency funds.

I really do hope that as the robos get bigger with larger AUM under them, they will lower the access fees to around 0.25% flat like how the popular US robos like Betterment and Wealthfront  charges.

[I am not a financial or tax advisor. There is indeed a use case for the two robo advisors as stated and my referral code is here for endowus and here for moneyowl. For the former, we both get $20 off access fees and for the latter, we both get $20 grabfood credits]